Pleasantville Slums?
by Matt Mayrl on February 26, 2008 in All Politics is Local: An Urban Policy Blog
Are suburbs becoming the new homes of slums? According to this article in the Atlantic, yes. The article’s author, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution and University of Michigan professor, believes that a number of trends are converging which could eventually push slums out of the city and into the burbs.First, he notes that the suburban market it overbuilt:
In 2006, using recent consumer research, housing supply data, and population growth rates, he modeled future demand for various types of housing. The results were bracing: Nelson forecasts a likely surplus of 22 million large-lot homes (houses built on a sixth of an acre or more) by 2025—that’s roughly 40 percent of the large-lot homes in existence today.
Then, he points out Americans’ rediscovered preference for urban living:
…Seinfeld—followed by Friends, then Sex and the City—began advertising the city’s renewed urban allure to Gen-Xers and Millennials. Many Americans, meanwhile, became disillusioned with the sprawl and stupor that sometimes characterize suburban life.
And, finally he notes two macroeconomic trends favor the future growth of cities: energy prices and demographic trends.
If gasoline and heating costs continue to rise, conventional suburban living may not be much of a bargain in the future.When the Baby Boomers were young, families with children made up more than half of all households; by 2000, they were only a third of households; and by 2025, they will be closer to a quarter. Young people are starting families later than earlier generations did, and having fewer children. The Boomers themselves are becoming empty-nesters, and many have voiced a preference for urban living. By 2025, the U.S. will contain about as many single-person households as families with children.
I’d agree that there are some broad macroeconomic trends that should help cities maintain their some of their recent resurgence. Delayed marriage and fewer children will help. If energy prices skyrocket, it will become more economical to live downtown. And, don’t forget immigration. Almost all of U.S. population growth in the next generation is expected to come from immigrants, a populations that favors living in dense, urban enclaves.But, I think this overlooks a few major unanswered questions about the future of cities:
- Can cities create reasonable permitting/zoning processes to allow developers to meet pent up demand for urban living, and reduce housing prices?
- How many aging boomers really want to live downtown? And, can cities create housing options that incorporate the services needed by an aging population?
- Can cities improve their education systems so that they can retain young professionals as they marry and have children?
Looking into the future and seeing favorable macroeconomic trends is a welcome change for cities, which have only recently begun to reverse the massive population losses suffered throughout the 70’s, 80’s and early 90’s. However, policymakers cannot count on macroeconomic trends alone to continue urban regrowth. The questions I laid out above point to what I consider to be the central challenge facing urban policymakers in the next twenty years – How can cities provide a range of housing options, services, amenities, and jobs that appeal to a broad range of the American public, which will allow them to sustain their recent resurgence?
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