The Citizen Conversation with … Sergio Bendixen
by Phillip Martin on February 26, 2008 in Citizen Conversation with...
With Senator Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign staking the survival of her candidacy on winning the Ohio and Texas primaries on March 4, her success, particularly in Texas, rests largely on her ability to turn out Hispanic Democrats - a demographic that helped deliver the state of California for her on Super Tuesday.
On February 20, one of the Clinton campaign’s chief pollsters, Sergio Bendixen, visited campus for a Shorenstein Center brownbag lunch to discuss polling and the Hispanic vote. Bendixen has been a leading expert in the field of Hispanic polling for more than 20 years, having served as the chief pollster for each of the four major Spanish-language television stations, including Univision and Telemundo. Though Bendixen wasn’t able to share any secrets about internal poll numbers or strategy, he took a few minutes to talk to the Citizen and shed some light on the voting patterns and behaviors of Hispanic voters in Texas and across the country.
Q: Senator Clinton performed well with Hispanics in California. Do you see any tangible differences between California Hispanics and Texas Hispanics?
A: I think that Texas Hispanic voters are a lot more interested in the military, in how we treat the soldiers that come back from Iraq and Afghanistan, and I think they are less interested in immigration policy than Hispanic voters in California. That has a lot to do with the makeup of the electorate in those two states. Almost one-half of Hispanics in California are immigrants, compared to only 18 percent in Texas.
Q: What caused the “sleeping giant” that is the Hispanic electorate to wake up?
A: The main reason both in the 1990s and in the last two or three years that Hispanics have started voting has to do with the demagogic reactionary way in which immigration was being talked about. Millions of Hispanics felt that if they did not become citizens and start voting that life would become difficult for them in America, and the anti-immigrant movement could get to the point where they would be asked to leave.
Q: Is the alleged generational split among Hispanics real, or over-hyped?
A: I would say it’s a lesser split than maybe among the general population, where we are seeing huge numbers of young people getting involved in the process to support both candidates. Among Hispanics you see some of that, but to a lesser extent. The big differential is that between the immigrant voter and that of the native-born voter.
Q: How do Democrats keep Hispanics in their electoral column for years to come?
A: Hispanics learned a big lesson in 2000 and 2004 when they fell for the Bush “hugs and kisses strategy.” Now, I think, they’ve learned that the important things that effect their life - the economy, their access to good health care, financing for their public schools, a fair immigration policy - are much more important than having someone talk to you in Spanish or wave the Mexican flag in their commercials [as President Bush did in previous elections]. This has caused them to return to the Democratic Party.
The Democrats, however, must deliver on these issues. Whoever wins the primary must pass universal health care, must pass immigration reforms and must end the war in Iraq. If they do that, they will keep the Hispanic voters and maybe even gain some more.
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