The Mathematics of Climate Change
by Syon Bhanot, News Editor on April 30, 2008 in HKS News
Having a PhD in physics isn’t typically regarded as an asset at school of public policy. But for Jason Blackstock (MPA/MC), it landed him right in the middle of this year’s Spring Exercise for first-year MPPs.
It began in early April, when Spring Exercise Professors John Donahue and Bill Clark decided that this year’s exercise, whose topic is global climate change, needed more empirical analysis.
“We had played around with a few ideas for incorporating empirical tools, and settled on using a [quantitative] model. Once we decided to do it, Jason immediately came to mind as someone who could help us out,” Professor Donahue says.
Soon thereafter, Professor Clark, Blackstock, and some of the Spring Exercise CAs met to discuss the design of a workable model. A major challenge that quickly emerged was the task of simplifying the elaborate general climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) into a simple Excel format for MPPs.
“Getting the science right was the big challenge,” Blackstock said. “There is so much data available, and distilling it all into a set of equations was really hard. I had to check and re-check the model a lot before I got it right.”
Blackstock’s presentation of the model on April 24 was warmly recieved.
“I am really impressed with the model. It forces us as students to take everything about the issue into account - not just the science, but the economics, the ethics, and the politics as well,” said Sal Arrona (MPP1).
Cheryl Scott (MPP1) agreed. “It’s both sophisticated and intuitive,” she said. “And it’s basically the same model that the experts at the UN use, which is really amazing.”
George Anjaparidze (MPP1), who will be working on climate change issues for the UN in Bonn, Germany this summer, was quick to add a note of caution. “Jason has done a remarkable job, but we need to recognize that these models have limitations” Anjaparidze says. “The original IPCC model makes some debatable assumptions, about a linear marginal benefit curve for example. We should be aware of that as policymakers.”
Blackstock acknowledges this concern. “The models aren’t perfect, and they aren’t going to solve climate change,” he said. “Ultimately, models are useful to ensure that decision makers are constrained by real world science. Solving the climate change problem is going to require good politics and sound economic analysis, not just science and equations.”
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