To Bomb or Not to Bomb
by Sharad Venkat on July 6, 2008 in Blog, Live from Beirut
After nine straight days of drinking to fulfill a wide range of social obligations, I’ve decided to give up the bottle for at least three days in order to fulfill a personal obligation to my health and well being (and my wallet! Thanks for nothing Summer Internship Fund:)
Anyway, there’s been a good deal of talk for a while now about what’s going to happen next in the game of brinksman ship being played between Israel, Iran and the US. Rami Khoury, the editor emeritus of the Daily Star, recently published an op-ed saying that though the desire is strong for an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, such a move lacks the long term strategic cost-benefit ratio needed to put the no doubt complex and detailed military plans into motion. Rami Khoury’s article can be found here.
I fall into this camp. It seems like madness for Israel or the US to attack Iran given the widespread influence it has in the region, and the complexity of alliances and motivations in the middle east make it impossible for even the most complete team of foreign policy experts and military strategists to accurately predict the repercussions and the outcome. That doesn’t mean that certain actors haven’t made their plans and their predictions. It also doesn’t mean that it won’t happen. Some are of the opinion that the hawks in the US and Israel believe that a daring move on Iran is the only way to prevent US influence in the middle-east from dying a slow, painful death. These are people who believed in the war in Iraq and still believe in it, and who are up for a winner take all gigantic long term tussle. A friend of mine has written a piece along these lines. As soon as it is published I will post the link here.
Though there are many people in high places who want to go this route, I think there are enough counterbalancing forces that will prevent it from happening. G Bush’s recent public statement announcing that the US does not support a military solution against Iran’s nuclear ambitions is a clear sign, to me, that the move is a no go for now, and that the US is a little bit worried that Israel will make the first move on its own and pull the US into the fight.
One thing is for certain: a move like that will take tensions in the region up a few notches, and will no doubt send a number of peace talks flying off the tracks. The Israeli-Palestinian solution will be the major casualty, but also the situation in Iraq will go to shit and matters in Afghanistan already are, where there have been more deaths of soldiers registered than in Iraq for the last two months running. US soldiers in Iraq will find themselves between two forces who fought to the death for nine years, and there will be no need to worry about Iranian proxy involvement in Iraq- they will gladly come in person.
Lebanon is a small issue at best for those who are pulling the strings for such an operation, though the repercussions for this tiny country would be huge. The already slow moving and some would say impotent negotiations to form a new government here would come to a dead stop as the various factions in the country would have to decide how to play in this new game. I don’t think a few prisoner swaps between Hizbullah and Israel are going to prevent a serious backlash from the Iranian aligned group, and many in Lebanon will start rolling out the bomb laden welcome mats in anticipation of another Israeli incursion into the country. Lebanon could see another civil war as the politicians/warlords take their bickering from the palaces back out into the streets and figure out how to use this new conflict to their political/military advantage. Lebanon might even get another visit from Syria, who has been slowly moving, at least on the surface, to improve its relations with the west.
Like all things related to politics in the region, there are experts who believe it will happen and experts who don’t. The only certainty is that nobody really knows. There are too many ways to start a conflict here; the spark can come from a number of different places and if there is enough wind to blow it towards the powder keg, nobody will be able to put it out in time.
I’m sitting in my favorite cafe in west Beirut, sipping on a delicious strawberry milkshake graciously given to me by the barman at no charge. Outside, the smoke from sheesha pipes wanders aimlessly through the streets. I wonder what kind of smoke will be floating through the streets in a few months time.
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