The Wrong Playbook
by Dylan Loewe on April 20, 2008 in Loewe Political Report
In the aftermath of the controversy that erupted over Senator Obama’s remarks at a San Francisco fundraiser, members of the Republican establishment – and the Clinton campaign – have seen a possible opening. In the previous two election cycles, the GOP saw much of their success grow out of defining Al Gore and John Kerry as out-of-touch elitists, incapable of empathizing with average Americans. Gore assisted in the characterization, often presenting himself as a condescending lecturer; Kerry, too, was happy to oblige on a number of occasions, either by referring to Lambeau Field as Lambert Field, by ordering Swiss cheese on a Philly Cheesteak, or by windsurfing in his downtime.
As a result, when Senator Obama used a poor word choice in describing small town voters, the GOP and the Clinton campaign shook the dust from the old Gore/Kerry playbook and began their assault. Hillary Clinton was quick to suggest that Obama had been divisive and elitist. She even chose to criticize Obama by comparing him to Kerry and Gore, an ill-advised mistake given Gore’s position as the most prominent of the remaining uncommitted superdelegates.
McCain and the RNC also ramped up their attacks, giving the appearance that they expect to brand Obama with the same iron that bested his predecessors.
But there are substantial differences between Obama’s candidacy and those of Gore and Kerry, differences that the GOP may ignore at their peril. Read more
A Bitter Pill to Swallow
by Dylan Loewe on April 14, 2008 in Loewe Political Report
Barack Obama’s poor choice of words at a San Francisco fundraiser has sparked the hopes of the Clinton campaign and piqued the interest of pundit and voter alike. Describing small town frustrations with a lackluster economy as bitterness, Barack Obama also suggested that gun culture and anti-immigrant sentiment are an outgrowth of those feelings.
Hillary Clinton was quick to jump on Obama’s words, calling the remarks elitist and condescending, and arguing that small town voters in Pennsylvania were optimistic, not bitter. John McCain also saw an opening, suggesting that Barack Obama was clearly out of touch. Despite the story breaking on a Friday evening, opinion makers in the blogosphere, on cable news, and on the Sunday shows had reactions ranging from dismissive to outrage, with some suggesting that the comments might be Obama’s very own “Macaca” moment. Read more
Political Legacy and the 2008 Election
by Dylan Loewe on April 11, 2008 in Loewe Political Report
It is often acknowledged that we cannot truly know what the lasting legacy of political figures will be until substantial time has passed. Harry Truman, for example, is regarded as one of the twentieth century’s fine presidents despite having left office with approval ratings in the low 20s. History has been similarly kind to George H.W. Bush, whose presidency seems so measured and competent, his foreign policy so realistic, especially when compared to that of his son.
As the 2008 election proceeds, it is leaving in its path the first articulation of the broader context of recent history. Read more
Where Have All the 527s Gone?
by Dylan Loewe on April 11, 2008 in Blog, Loewe Political Report
In 2002, Congress banned political parties from accepting soft money contributions and coordinating expenditures with candidates for federal office. In the presidential election two years later, rather than disappearing from the process, soft money was instead funneled into less accountable hands. Thus, the 527 organization was born.
Hundreds of millions of dollars were spent on independent advertising and voter mobilization efforts in 2004, with a number of those efforts gaining infamy with their impact on the campaign. In 2007, major donors of the Democratic Party convened to determine how to coordinate their soft money expenditures for the 2008 election, concluding that they would form a single organization, known as Fund for America, that would coordinate spending.
With the dramatic impact that 527s had on the 2004 election, many Democrats, including major players in the sometimes secretive world of independent political organizations, believed that 527 spending would play an equally crucial role in retaking the White House. When Fund for America was announced, its spokesperson suggested that the group would spend over $100 million on the election.
As of today, that goal appears to be far out of reach. Read more
Mark Penn Finally Fired
by Dylan Loewe on April 7, 2008 in Blog, Loewe Political Report
Late Sunday evening, the Clinton campaign confirmed that Mark Penn was stepping down as chief strategist in the wake of his dust-up with the Colombian government. That his tenure at the helm of the campaign ended because of a connection to a Burson-Marsteller client is not terribly surprising. But there were plenty of reasons, far better than this one, to have fired Penn many months before.
Penn presided over a top-down campaign in which, to the surprise of most observers, he was responsible for both crafting the message and polling its effectiveness. Normally frowned upon, such an approach often leads to self-fulfilling polling that validates the assumptions of the strategist, rather than providing an objective assessment. Perhaps that is the best explanation for a series of horribly misguided message strategies that Penn employed.
There was the now infamous inevitability argument, a message that ramped expectations to heights that Clinton could never have expected to meet. There was the change vs. experience message, one that helped validate Obama’s persona as the change candidate. And of course, when times got tough, there was the “Let’s get real” message. Showing a clear sign that the campaign did not understand its opponent, this message criticized Obama supporters rather than Obama himself, driving the wedge further between the candidate and the voters she needed to persuade.
But Penn chose not to confine his incompetence strictly to messaging, allowing it to invade all parts of the campaign strategy. His decision to forego caucus states demonstrated a glaring misunderstanding of the delegate allocation process. In a system in which losses must be minimized and wins inflated, Penn surrendered essential turf. It is equally surprising that someone who perceived his candidate as having enormous weaknesses in caucuses would have steered the campaign directly into the Iowa caucus. Had Deputy Campaign Manager Mike Henry’s recommendation been adopted — that Clinton forego Iowa — she may well have earned the nomination months ago.
As a chief strategist, Penn consistently proved to be a disappointing spokesperson. His mannerisms and tone on television suggest an abiding arrogance; he is often described as unsavory and unpleasant. While on Hardball, he was chastised by Joe Trippi for invoking the word “cocaine” while talking about Senator Obama. When paired with Obama strategist David Axelrod, Penn seemed unable to control his disdain.
Even when he wasn’t speaking for the campaign, he too often found himself at the center of the story. Private infighting with staff was often public and unprofessional, with uncomfortable details making front page news on multiple occasions.
Having not taken a leave from being Worldwide CEO of Burson-Marsteller, Penn set himself up for a number of potentially harmful situations for the Clinton campaign. His moonlighting for anti-union companies and other controversial organizations were an issue throughout the campaign, culminating this past week when he met with the Colombian Ambassador. The Colombian Embassy had hired Penn’s firm to help pass a trade deal that Clinton opposes. Last night’s resignation was the eventual result.
There were a number of reasons to fire Mark Penn, not the least of which was his obvious incompetence. But more than anything else, Mark Penn deserved to be fired because he viewed Hillary Clinton as just another client. Who wouldn’t want a chance to elect someone president, a chance to leave a permanent mark and a lasting legacy? But for Penn, the Clinton campaign was just a client who purchased his services, no different than the Colombian government, or Exelon, or Blackwater.
So much of what was wrong with her was him.
Mark Penn should have been fired back in September and again in January. He should have been fired after Super Tuesday, and fired after the eleven contests that followed. He should have been fired before Texas and Ohio, and fired twice after. Instead, he wasn’t fired until April 6th, two weeks before the Pennsylvania primary, when no change in strategy could possibly change the outcome.
More Kitchen Sink Please
by Dylan Loewe on March 13, 2008 in Blog, Loewe Political Report
There has been a high level of concern expressed by many Obama supporters about the tone and temperament of the Clinton campaign. Believing her win in Ohio was, at least in part, the result of a strategy that called Obama’s readiness into question, the Clinton campaign has continued to press the commander in chief conversation. She has now, on several occasions, explicitly judged John McCain has more capable of being commander in chief than Barack Obama.
The Case for Obama’s Readiness
by Dylan Loewe on March 10, 2008 in Blog, Loewe Political Report
Hillary Clinton’s success in Texas and Ohio suggest that questioning Barack Obama’s readiness to lead may be a tactic that can resonate with voters. Though exit polling data from Wisconsin and other recent state primaries had suggested that voters saw Obama and Clinton as equally capable to be commander in chief, new numbers reveal a shift. A Newsweek poll now shows Clinton beating Obama on readiness with a twelve point margin.
The poll also finds that only four percent of Democratic primary voters view national security as their top priority. But if Clinton continues to make national security the centerpiece of her campaign, we may see those numbers begin to increase.
Much of the media views Obama as facing a delicate and unique challenge. Read more
Hillary: The New Huckabee
by Dylan Loewe on March 5, 2008 in Loewe Political Report
Hillary’s wins yesterday in Texas and Ohio breathed new life into her campaign. Basking in the glow of fresh momentum, Hillary did six morning show appearances today, and will continue to try to shape the story as a brand new race.But Hillary’s spin, and the media adoption of that spin, will do little to change an even starker reality this morning: Hillary Clinton cannot win the Democratic nomination. Read more
