To Bomb or Not to Bomb
by Sharad Venkat on July 6, 2008 in Blog, Live from Beirut
After nine straight days of drinking to fulfill a wide range of social obligations, I’ve decided to give up the bottle for at least three days in order to fulfill a personal obligation to my health and well being (and my wallet! Thanks for nothing Summer Internship Fund:)
Anyway, there’s been a good deal of talk for a while now about what’s going to happen next in the game of brinksman ship being played between Israel, Iran and the US. Rami Khoury, the editor emeritus of the Daily Star, recently published an op-ed saying that though the desire is strong for an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, such a move lacks the long term strategic cost-benefit ratio needed to put the no doubt complex and detailed military plans into motion.
Rami Khoury’s article can be found here.
I fall into this camp. It seems like madness for Israel or the US to attack Iran given the widespread influence it has in the region, and the complexity of alliances and motivations in the middle east make it impossible for even the most complete team of foreign policy experts and military strategists to accurately predict the repercussions and the outcome. That doesn’t mean that certain actors haven’t made their plans and their predictions. It also doesn’t mean that it won’t happen. Some are of the opinion that the hawks in the US and Israel believe that a daring move on Iran is the only way to prevent US influence in the middle-east from dying a slow, painful death. These are people who believed in the war in Iraq and still believe in it, and who are up for a winner take all gigantic long term tussle. A friend of mine has written a piece along these lines. As soon as it is published I will post the link here.
Though there are many people in high places who want to go this route, I think there are enough counterbalancing forces that will prevent it from happening. G Bush’s recent public statement announcing that the US does not support a military solution against Iran’s nuclear ambitions is a clear sign, to me, that the move is a no go for now, and that the US is a little bit worried that Israel will make the first move on its own and pull the US into the fight.
One thing is for certain: a move like that will take tensions in the region up a few notches, and will no doubt send a number of peace talks flying off the tracks. The Israeli-Palestinian solution will be the major casualty, but also the situation in Iraq will go to shit and matters in Afghanistan already are, where there have been more deaths of soldiers registered than in Iraq for the last two months running. US soldiers in Iraq will find themselves between two forces who fought to the death for nine years, and there will be no need to worry about Iranian proxy involvement in Iraq- they will gladly come in person.
Lebanon is a small issue at best for those who are pulling the strings for such an operation, though the repercussions for this tiny country would be huge. The already slow moving and some would say impotent negotiations to form a new government here would come to a dead stop as the various factions in the country would have to decide how to play in this new game. I don’t think a few prisoner swaps between Hizbullah and Israel are going to prevent a serious backlash from the Iranian aligned group, and many in Lebanon will start rolling out the bomb laden welcome mats in anticipation of another Israeli incursion into the country. Lebanon could see another civil war as the politicians/warlords take their bickering from the palaces back out into the streets and figure out how to use this new conflict to their political/military advantage. Lebanon might even get another visit from Syria, who has been slowly moving, at least on the surface, to improve its relations with the west.
Like all things related to politics in the region, there are experts who believe it will happen and experts who don’t. The only certainty is that nobody really knows. There are too many ways to start a conflict here; the spark can come from a number of different places and if there is enough wind to blow it towards the powder keg, nobody will be able to put it out in time.
I’m sitting in my favorite cafe in west Beirut, sipping on a delicious strawberry milkshake graciously given to me by the barman at no charge. Outside, the smoke from sheesha pipes wanders aimlessly through the streets. I wonder what kind of smoke will be floating through the streets in a few months time.
Political Speed Dating
by Sharad Venkat on July 3, 2008 in Blog, Live from Beirut
This is an article I wrote a few weeks ago for the Daily Star newspaper. Its a reflection piece looking back on the Harvard Lebanon immersion Trip that started it all.
As I looked out into the night from the balcony of the Kataeb compound in Saifi, the lights of the houses glittered on the distant hills outside of Beirut. Waiting with 39 other Harvard students for former President Amin Gemayel to usher us into the conference room, I thought of something a friend told me a day earlier, itself a popular repetition of Beirut’s contradictory reputation. To paraphrase, he said “Beirut pulls you in with its beautiful landscapes, its rich history, its ceaseless nightlife, its stunning and enigmatic women…and then when you have let Beirut enter you, when you have let yourself sink into its welcoming earth, it will explode. Beirut will take your blood to feed the constantly spinning cycle of violence, as payment for taking in its riches, or perhaps as punishment for believing that what you had fallen in love with was the reality.” Read more
Looking thru a Broken Windshield
by Sharad Venkat on July 2, 2008 in Blog, Live from Beirut
The other night, I had a few drinks with a friend. On the walk home, he stopped by a red Hundai. “See this car?” he asked. “It’s been sitting here untouched since the last war.”
The next day I thought about the car and went back to take another look in the daylight. It is in relatively good shape except the back window is completely smashed. The front windshield has a bullet hole near the top. I imagined I was a crime scene specialist on CSI and after closer inspection, determined that a bullet had come in through the back and exited through the front windshield. It came in through the back because the glass from the back window was mostly inside the car, indicating the force came from the outside and in through the back. This was a pretty rudimentary analysis, but I was happy with it. I was more interested in the story behind this car. Why was it still sitting here? What did it mean? Read more
The Rebirth of Conflict
by Sharad Venkat on June 27, 2008 in Blog, Live from Beirut
Today, while walking near downtown Beirut, I came across the Hariri memorial, a large tent-like structure that serves as a tomb as well as memorial to those who died in the bomb blast that killed former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. I decided to take time out and explore the memorial.
Rafik Hariri was the former Prime Minister of Lebanon. He served from 1992 to 1998 and again from 2000 until 2004. Hariri was loved by many and hated by many, which is a sure sign of political success here in Lebanon. Hariri was hated by the Syrians and by the pro-Hizbullah contingent, and he openly demanded the withdrawal of the Syrian presence. He was also incredibly rich, amassing billions of dollars thru business ventures, most prominently in Lebanon and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. During his tenure Hariri’s accomplishments were a mixed bag, but he was praised for his role in reconstructing Beirut after the long and destructive civil war of the 1970’s and 80’s.
The Power of Fear
by Sharad Venkat on June 25, 2008 in Blog, Live from Beirut
I had a genuinely frightening experience earlier today. I was walking home from Achrafiyya in East Beirut back to my room in Hamra, West Beirut, and crossed past a few checkpoints on the road. These guys always look at me funny but don’t often give me trouble. But at about the third checkpoint the soldier walks up to me and starts speaking in quick Arabic. I have a general idea that he wants to search my bag but I’m a little bit annoyed with his attitude so I pretend not to understand. He eventually starts using his hands and grabbing at my bag so I concede and give it to him.
This is no big deal- I’ve had my bag searched a number of times on the street by soldiers. I’m watching this guy and quietly appreciating how meticulous he is. Usually they’ll look in one or two pockets and call it a day. But this one went through every pocket, looked in every corner, took out and examined every object. I have a little squeeze blower that I use to clean my camera. He stared at it and then asked me what it was, so I squeezed it for him and he was satisfied.
Then he asked for my passport. I felt in my pocket and knew it wasn’t there…it was sitting in my desk drawer in the hotel room. I explained this to him. Then I did what I did once before at a checkpoint- I handed him my visa atm card. He looked over it, bending it, turning it, just like the soldier had done at the other checkpoint. But instead of laughing and giving it back, he laughed and said something in Arabic that I interpreted to be ‘do you really think you’re getting off with this?’ Read more
A study in shirking (and contrasts)
by Jamie Snashall on May 6, 2008 in Befuddled Foreigner
As the semester draws to a conclusion, it’s probably about time that I answer the clamour of voices from home (well, ok, maybe one or two) who have asked me how you the workload for a Master’s degree that’s done and dusted in just a year. Let me defer to a number of people, all of whom are better qualified than I to answer.
One colleague of mine, a long-serving military man, has the following credo:
It’s only a lot of reading if you do it all.
On that topic, this recent article from the Citizen is well worth reading.
Or former five star general and US President Dwight Eisenhower, who attended the Army’s Command and General Staff College at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, in the 1920s. A biography by Geoffrey Perret records Ike’s view of his course:
Everyone who stayed with the course, in fact, graduated. It was like being at Harvard – people dropped out, but nobody flunked out.
Thoughts on Mugabe - A side note on Zimbabwe
by Wangari Kebuchi on May 3, 2008 in Blog, Kenya Crisis
It may be clear to the world that Mugabe has to be removed from office, but we must not assume that this clarity is shared by a large proportion of Zimbabweans in Zimbabwe. The winds of change are sweeping across the Zimbabwean landscape but the main question is: Does Zimbabwe have its sails up? Read more
The Pope, a primary and being a small ‘r’ republican
by Jamie Snashall on April 26, 2008 in Befuddled Foreigner
Apologies that there’s been nothing for 10 days – I’ve been more exhausted than befuddled as we head into ‘finals season’ - although this version has nothing to do with footy finals in September back home! It feels like plenty has happened both here and in Oz since I last posted.
Pope Benedict XVI has been in the US and has a website (www.uspapalvisit.org) dedicated to covering the trip. Not only that, but just as the President of the US has Air Force One, the Pope has – I’m not kidding – Shepherd One! The papal visit has, predictably, turned British Prime Minister Gordon Brown to Gordon Beige with very little media coverage of his time here.
Insubordination
by Wangari Kebuchi on April 23, 2008 in Blog, Kenya Crisis
For some reason, today I have been thinking about what insubordination, or the perception of insubordination can lead to in the context of African politics. I talked to a friend of mine about this today and as we spoke I remembered what had transpired with Robert Ouko, one of Kenya’s rising leaders. As the story goes, he was killed because president had perceived signs of insubordination from him. Read more
A Restored Competitive Advantage for Cities?
by Matt Mayrl on April 21, 2008 in All Politics is Local: An Urban Policy Blog
The Washington Post published this article today, detailing the resurgence of the railrod industry in U.S. To briefly summarize: As oil prices continue to rise, rail freight traffic is increasing dramatically. Because rail fright shipping has a 3-to-1 fuel efficiency advantage over 18-wheelers, the amount of tonnage shipped via rail is projected to almost double by 2035.
How does this relate to urban policy? Well, the agglomeration of industry and people we see in cities was initially driven by businesses needing to locate close to rail lines, before the modern trucking industry evolved. And, cities still retain extensive rail infrastructure. To the extent that businesses can realize cost efficiencies by locating near rail lines, the resurgence of the rail freight industry provides cities with a competitive advantage that can contribute to cities’ revitalization.
